Q4'25 Warehouse Pricing Index Report
Executive Summary
- The National Warehouse Pricing Index rose slightly in Q3’25 to 112.3.
- Tariffs on furniture and lumber imports are now in effect as of October 14th.
- U.S. manufacturing rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, but the expansion rate is slowing from the 39-month high in August.
- U.S. imports fell 8.4 percent YOY, including a 22.9 percent drop in products from China.
The Warehouse Pricing Index (WPI) is available in the Journal of Commerce’s extensive, multi-channel dashboard, Gateway. Learn more about Gateway and how WarehouseQuote helps logistics managers make informed supply chain decisions.
Opportunistic Warehousing: Finding Value Beyond Tier 1 Markets
As the U.S. industrial market stabilizes, a new focus is emerging on "opportunistic" warehouse markets. These are smaller, strategically located cities situated one to three hours outside major logistics hubs. They offer a compelling combination of lower rents, readily available modern space, and more affordable labor, serving as cost-efficient alternatives to over-tight core regions where national vacancy rates are reaching equilibrium.
Consider examples like Reno, Nevada, and Indianapolis, Indiana. Reno provides easy access to the Bay Area via I-80, while Indianapolis connects to Chicago and the broader Midwest through a variety of intersecting interstates. Both markets maintain healthy vacancy levels and significantly lower rents compared to their larger neighbors, enabling distributors and manufacturers to expand capacity without facing the high costs or congestion associated with core markets. Their appeal lies in their strategic distance, which allows for substantial cost savings while maintaining supply-chain efficiency.
Comparison: Tier 1 vs. Tier 3 Industrial Markets
This trend is evident across the country, with a growing number of similar markets, including Lehigh Valley, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and the areas surrounding Atlanta. Companies are re-evaluating their network designs with greater flexibility, seeking the next ring of capacity that optimally balances cost, labor availability, and delivery times. The answer increasingly points to these secondary corridors, which combine excellent connectivity with ample space. In an environment of stabilized demand and increased scrutiny on operating costs, these opportunistic markets are reshaping how proximity and efficiency are integrated into modern logistics planning.
For shippers looking to re-evaluate their distribution networks in 2026, connect with our team to help identify optimal warehouse locations that balance cost, speed, and service.
U.S. Warehouse Market Watch
- 7.1% National Industrial Vacancy Rate
- 112.3 National Warehouse Pricing Index Reading (Unchanged MOM)
The National Warehouse Pricing Index (WPI) remained unchanged in September, marking the end of subtle price increases. Muted import volumes and seasonality are the likely factors contributing to stabilized prices.
Completing Stage 2: Supply Chain Strategies Heading into 2026
By Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence
The outlook for US trade policy heading into 2026 can be characterized as more-of-the-same (find out more from our recent webinar “Uncertainty is the New Certainty: Q4 2025 Trade & Supply Chain Outlook” for more). A Supreme Court review of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) is due in November. Even if rejected, the US government has plenty of other routes to apply duties.
At the product level, several Section 232 reviews are still outstanding, most notably in the electronics and medical supplies sectors. In aggregate the eight reviews where duties are yet to be announced account for 17% of US imports by value with conclusions likely by the first quarter of 2026. A renegotiation of the USMCA free trade deal also looms and is due to be completed by October 2026.
We’ve previously identified three stages of tariff mitigation strategies. Stage one involved the early shipment, or front loading, of imports. That’s begun to unwind. Market Intelligence data for US seaborne imports shows imports in the month of September fell by 5.5% year over year. That included a 17.1% drop in shipments from mainland China as well as a 15.3% slide in shipments from ports in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. At the other end of the scale, shipments from the ASEAN territory have continued to surge, rising 13.7% as firms continue to tactically switch their sourcing away from mainland China on a tactical basis.
Looking ahead, US imports of containerized freight are forecast to reverse with a 14.4% year-over-year drop in the fourth quarter of 2025 after a 0.6% increase in the third quarter. The downturn is forecast to continue through the third quarter of 2026.
The fastest rate of decline is expected in imports from Asia, led by imports from mainland China, which are expected to decline by 23.2%. Imports from the EU meanwhile are expected to be more robust and will increase by 0.4% in the fourth quarter thanks in part to the trade deal reached with the US for a flat 15% tariff rate, with a decline expected in early 2026 as the pre-tariff front-loading period from a year earlier is lapped.
Stage two is underway. The simplest reaction to higher costs – passing them through to consumers – has started to become visible in some sectors even if overall consumer price inflation has not spiked. That’s driven by several factors, particularly that firms are concerned about weak consumer demand and only want to move prices on an infrequent basis. There’s also evidence that retailers are using reduced discounting – i.e. less generous promotions in sales – to improve their revenues per item without raising sticker prices.
Alongside price increases, firms continue to look to share the burden of tariffs with their suppliers. The evidence from import prices shows that burden sharing has been isolated so far. That’s not a surprise given most procurement contracts are negotiated annually on a 12-to-24 month forward basis, raising questions about the stickiness of existing tariffs and potential for future increases.
The benefits to earnings stemming from price rises and cost negotiations are therefore unlikely to start appearing in corporate statements until the middle of 2025.
There’s a silver lining to the administration’s policies in the form of lightweight trade deals with US partners that provide opportunities for US exporters. US policy has also encouraged an acceleration of trade deal making elsewhere in the world too. The EU is set to ink deals with the Mercosur group (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and India while in Asia an updated ASEAN-mainland China and expansion of CPTPP is expected.
Those deals, along with improved tariff transparency and the completion of the first two stages of tariff mitigation, should allow firms to start reviewing their reshoring strategies and start making investments later in 2026.
The 2026 Market Outlook Powered by C.H. Robinson
By Mat Leo, Principal Manager of Research and Market Intelligence at C.H. Robinson
In 2026, global supply chains are transitioning from post pandemic-era volatility to a more structurally complex environment shaped by trade policy uncertainty, regulatory changes, consumer demand shifts, and evolving modal competitiveness. While transportation rates have stabilized across most modes, cost pressures from inflation, fuel, labor, and compliance persist.
Tariffs continue to be a top priority for shippers to understand when looking at their total supply chain costs as they reshape sourcing patterns and look to drive regional diversification while simultaneously balancing the ideal modal mix. The truckload market will be the bellwether for the rest of the transportation industry. When supply-demand dynamics begin to tighten for truckload, rates will increase. As this shift occurs, intermodal rates are expected to adjust in order to stay competitive. Small-sized shipments will convert to LTL, adding volume and pressure on common carriers. Truckload capacity constraints will ripple across modes, contributing to port congestion, and reduced vessel efficiency. As efficiency declines, higher-priority freight is likely to move by air. Despite mild increases in truckload pricing expected in the new year, carrier supply constraints will continue to mount and cause more of an impact during seasonal events or unexpected disruptions causing intensified temporary pressures. Regardless of a shipper’s primary mode of transport, monitoring the truckload market will be essential in 2026.
These dynamics are redefining the role of warehousing in 2026. Warehouses are no longer passive storage points but strategic hubs solving varying needs as the market evolves. Shippers will be looking to balance the need for just-in-time and just-in-case inventory as consumer demand shifts, supplier sourcing changes, and certain modes experience capacity or cost pressures. In 2026, we could begin to see a change in geographic warehouse demand as further tariffs get instated or when the dust settles and more clarity is known and allowing for shippers to plan accordingly. Depending on the outcome, we could see regional distribution centers gain prominence if shippers look to position goods closer to demand while minimizing excess carrying costs.
Facilities near intermodal ramps, border crossings, and inland ports would see increased demand if nearshoring in Mexico and Canada reshapes freight flows, so following the USMCA trade agreement discussions will be critical. If U.S. manufacturing begins to realize promised increases in investments, domestic production boosts could spur a whole new need for storing raw materials in addition to finished goods. Technology-enabled warehouses offering real-time visibility, automated workflows, and flexible throughput will become critical infrastructure for managing disruptions, optimizing landed costs, and maintaining service continuity in a structurally uncertain market.
Shippers should avoid treating 2026 as a “status quo” year. With tariffs, regulatory shifts, and seasonal shocks driving volatility, contracting strategies should be flexible. Blanket contracts may limit agility, while short-term spot exposure can increase cost unpredictability. The optimal approach will be blended procurement: securing core lanes through contracts while reserving capacity for opportunistic buying in markets where rates soften. Timing matters, align RFPs with expected rate cycles rather than rigid annual calendars to optimize both service and cost. Uncertainty will remain high in 2026. Potential risks include labor actions at ports or railroads, geopolitical conflicts disrupting key shipping lanes, and climate-driven events such as extreme weather that halts capacity. Shippers should proactively map critical vulnerabilities across their supply chains, identify alternative routings or suppliers, and pre-negotiate contingency arrangements with providers. Risk management is no longer a reactive function, it must be embedded in the budgeting and procurement cycle. In 2026, shippers face a market defined less by runaway volatility and more by shifting structural forces such as tariffs, trade policy, seasonal shocks, and regulatory uncertainty. Success will come from balancing strategic procurement with leveraging market opportunities, actively optimizing mode mix as relative cost advantages shift, and strengthening inventory positioning to buffer against disruption without overextending working capital. For specifics on modes or services projections in the upcoming year, read C.H. Robinson’s 2026 Freight Market Outlook.
Explanation of Terms
Industrial Real Estate Vacancy Rates
Industrial real estate vacancy rate is the percentage of available industrial property, such as a warehouse or distribution center.
United States Regional Divisions
Midwest
- East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
- West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota
Northeast
- New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
- Middle Atlantic: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania
South
- South Atlantic: Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington DC, and West Virginia
- East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
- West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas
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