Q2'26 Warehouse Pricing Index Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The National Warehouse Pricing Index increased 0.1 percent in Q1'26 to 112.3.
• US inbound container volumes are projected to fall 12.9 percent in 2026, with a recovery not expected until 2027.
• Dry van capacity is tightening in Q2 as seasonal disruptions stack with structural supply-side pressure, adding downstream variability to warehouse inbound operations.

The Warehouse Pricing Index (WPI) is available in the Journal of Commerce’s extensive, multi-channel dashboard, Gateway. Learn more about Gateway and how WarehouseQuote helps logistics managers make informed supply chain decisions.

The Clarity Window

Supply chain management has spent the better part of five years navigating compounding uncertainty. Pandemic-era demand swings, a freight market that cycled from frenzy to freefall, and a tariff environment that rewrote the rules mid-season, multiple times, all took their toll. Against that backdrop, the current moment feels meaningfully different. Not simple, but clearer.

As we move into Q2 2026, the outlines of the market are coming into focus in ways that support real planning. The front-loading cycle has run its course, and import volumes are settling into patterns that logistics teams can model against with reasonable confidence. The warehousing market has stratified in useful ways, with coastal regions outperforming and the national index, after years of surge, now holding a steady plateau. Regional pricing signals are giving network planners the kind of data-driven picture that supports smarter placement decisions. On the transportation side, a truckload market that spent over a year absorbing excess capacity is gradually transitioning. Not a reversal, but a directional shift worth incorporating into planning assumptions.

This is the kind of environment where thoughtful operators tend to gain ground. The companies making deliberate moves right now are refining their warehousing footprint, building flexible capacity relationships, and investing in the operational visibility that turns market data into confident decisions. They are doing so from a position of knowledge rather than reaction, and that is a meaningful shift from where the industry was just a year ago.

Markets this legible don't stay that way indefinitely. But for now, the information is here, and the teams who use it well will be better positioned for whatever comes next.

U.S. Warehouse Market Watch

• 7.0% National Industrial Vacancy Rate (- 0.1 percent)
• 112.3 National Warehouse Pricing Index Reading (+0.1 percent)

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The Northeast Is Setting the Pace The Northeast posted the strongest year-over-year growth of any region, climbing from 105.3 in March 2025 to 107.6 in March 2026 — a gain of +2.2%. After bottoming out in late 2024, the region has risen steadily for four consecutive months and now sits at its highest reading in the dataset.

The South's Decline Is Accelerating The South has extended its downward trend into Q2, falling from a peak of 114.9 in July 2025 to 113.49 in March 2026. What began as a modest reversal has now deepened to a -0.8% year-over-year decline, making it the weakest-performing region in the current index.

The National Index Holds Its Plateau The National WPI edged up just 0.1% in Q1 2026 to reach 112.3 — a gain so narrow it underscores how thoroughly the index has flatlined. The reading has held within a 0.24-point range since June 2025, with regional divergence telling the more meaningful story beneath the surface.

Conflict, tariffs and USMCA bring planning challenges for the rest of 2026

Contributor: Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research, S&P Global Market Intelligence

The conflict in the Middle East is a yet another reminder – after tariffs, the pandemic and disruptions to logistics networks ranging from port strikes to rail line failures – of the importance of conservative yet cost-effective inventory management in supply chains.

The situation in the Middle East remains fluid, with any ceasefire likely will take time to work through supply networks as the last arrivals from the region into US ports from the start of the war will only be followed by the new shipments in late April or early May. Conflict in the Middle East resulted in supplier delivery delays in April, which are among the worst since the pandemic era. The S&P Global Manufacturing supplier delivery time Purchasing Manager Index^TM (PMI^TM) for the eurozone fell to 38.8 in April from 40.9 in March (the worst since July 2022),l yet US manufacturers are facing fewer disruptions and delays so far.

The overall US reliance on the Middle East as a supplier is lower than the global average, with direct imports of a range of critical energy and manufacturing chemicals equivalent to just 0.07% of US GDP. Similarly, direct imports from the GCC group of containerized freight were 0.75% of the total, led by textiles and apparel (27.0% of imports of container freight from the region), aluminum and steel (24.0%) and plastics (10.4%). That may understate the disruption, however, given the importance of container hubs “inside” the strait of Hormuz including Jebel Ali, which container firms have had to route around, shown by the importance of apparel, which was largely originated in India.

In the meantime, US seaborne imports of container freight dipped by just 0.5% year over year in March, S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows. That was the seventh straight month of decline, but the slowest rate of downturn over that period and improved from the 5.2% drop in February. A major contributing factor was an attempt to take advantage of a reduction in tariff rates following the over-ruling of IEEPA tariffs by the Supreme Court in February as well as get ahead of potential future increases in tariff rates once Section 122 duties are replaced with Section 301

The potentially lower rate of tariffs accruing to imports may have driven another surge in imports from ASEAN countries, which typically faced IEEPA tariff rates of around 20% compared to the current 10% Section 122 rate. Imports from ASEAN members rose by 21,4% year over year in March. Tariffs will remain in flux with the ongoing Section 301 reviews which will likely yield new tariffs ahead of the end of current Section 122 duties in late July. Importers may continue to accelerate shipments ahead of that point, particularly for peak season products. Later in the year the results of the ongoing USMCA trade deal review brings further uncertainties for importers to the US.

For 2026 as a whole the hangover from the previous year’s tariff front-loading boom combined with softer – albeit improving – industrial demand and disruptions to the global economy from the war in the Middle East is likely to drag on global container freight activity growth, with growth of 0.1% year over year forecast by Market Intelligence. Inbound traffic to the United States meanwhile is expected to decline at a much faster rate as volumes normalize back to historic levels after nearly five years of pandemic, tariff and conflict disruptions, with a decline of 12.9% year over year forecast for 2026 and a recovery in 2027.

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Freight Disruptions Are Stacking in Q2. What That Could Mean for Warehousing

Contributor: Mathew Leo, Director of Research & Market Intelligence, C.H. Robinson

We are mid-way through the second quarter and to the part where freight markets move into a stretch where several common disruptions are landing close together.  Most of these are expected events that occur each year, but the timing of each of these impacts is what is important, especially in an environment where capacity is already tightening and unexpected events seem to be a given.

For warehousing and inventory managers, the bigger question is not whether transportation disruptions will happen.  It is how those disruptions might change inbound flows, inventory positioning, and day to day warehouse operations as the quarter plays out.

A Quarter Shaped by Overlapping Events

Late spring always comes with known pressure points. Holiday demand, enforcement events, and seasonal shifts in produce freight tend to show up around the same time each year.  What stands out this quarter is how closely some of those events are stacked as well as tightening macro-environmental conditions, leaving less room for the market to reset between them.  Holiday related demand often creates short bursts of pressure, even if regionally specific.

Mother’s Day is a good example.  It tends to impact markets like Southern Florida the most due to that being the hub of flower imports, but can pull capacity from other regions, especially the Southeast.  On its own, that kind of spike is usually manageable across a broad portfolio.  Problems start when those regional surges roll straight into broader, nationwide events.

DOT Roadcheck Week is one of the most consistent examples.  While it is well known and planned for, it still reduces available capacity as trucks sit through delays during inspections, or simply use this week to take a vacation to avoid the hassle and loss of productivity.  Even after the inspection period ends, the market does not always snap back immediately as it takes time to work through the backlog of freight buildup.  This chart below shows how the DAT Load-to-Truck Ratio, a measure of supply and demand in the truckload market, has been impacted over the past 15 years during this event.

This year, less recovery time between events raises the risk that disruption lingers instead of fading.

Produce Season Adds Another Layer of Complexity

While events like Roadcheck Week are short but sharp events, the produce and beverage season is happening all the while, building gradually, both in location and intensity.  Early volumes move through southern and cross border markets tied to Mexico.  From there, demand spreads into California, Arizona, Texas, Florida, and then moves north as temperatures rise.

Because of the lingering cold weather, including late freezes in the south, certain crops had to be delayed or even replanted.  That shift may push more produce movement closer to other seasonal disruptions rather than spreading it out over a longer window.  When that happens, competition for trucks picks up quickly, even for freight that has nothing to do with agriculture.

From a warehouse perspective, the impact is often less about a sudden flood of inventory and more about timing.  Inbound loads arrive less predictably. Appointment schedules get tighter. Daily volumes become harder to smooth out.

Transportation Friction Changes Inventory Behavior

When transportation becomes less predictable, shippers tend to adjust how they move freight. Those adjustments often show up downstream in warehouse operations.

Some shippers try to reduce exposure by shipping larger quantities less frequently. Trucks go out fuller, but fewer of them run. That can temporarily increase storage needs when more inventory arrives at once than what is immediately required.  Others respond by slowing replenishment and drawing down inventory. That eases short term storage pressure, but it can increase the risk of service issues if lead times extend or disruptions last longer than expected.

In reality, both behaviors can exist at the same time across different products, customers, or regions. That mix makes overall warehouse demand less predictable, even if total volumes look stable on paper.

Warehouse Strategy Becomes a Risk Conversation

These dynamics are why warehouse conversations can shift toward tradeoffs instead of single answers.  Centralized distribution networks can run efficiently when transportation flows smoothly, but they concentrate risk when disruption hits.  More distributed networks can absorb regional issues more easily, though they come with added cost and operational complexity.

Which approach works best depends on what is being stored, how quickly it needs to move, inventory-to-sales strategy, how much variability a network can tolerate, etc.  The broader takeaway is that transportation issues don’t just affect transportation costs.  They also influence how inventory is positioned and how facilities are used in order to ensure stock-outs don’t occur.

As the quarter moves forward, seasonal forces will continue to overlap.  Even events that are well understood can have a larger impact when they arrive back-to-back, due to the created backlog.  This was experienced towards the beginning of the year when winter storms similarly created a backlog that took weeks to clear.  This is expected to be exacerbated in regions already seeing tighter capacity.  Continued structural pressure on capacity and regulatory enforcement could add yet another layer to this disruptive quarter.

For warehouse operators, the challenge is less about preparing for a single disruption and more about managing variability.  Arrival patterns may shift and volumes may bunch up as shipment volumes become erratic and lumpy.

Understanding how freight disruptions ripple into warehouse operations helps teams stay ahead of those swings instead of reacting after congestion builds.  In a quarter like this, flexibility often matters as much as efficiency.

Explanation of Terms

Industrial Real Estate Vacancy Rates

Industrial real estate vacancy rate is the percentage of available industrial property, such as a warehouse or distribution center.

United States Regional Divisions

Midwest‍

• East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
• West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Northeast

• New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
• Middle Atlantic: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania

South ‍

• South Atlantic: Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington DC, and West Virginia
• East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
• West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

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The material and content used in this publication is for informational purposes only. Reference to any third party (including external hyperlinks) does not constitute or imply the endorsement of said third party. WarehouseQuote does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the Content. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of WarehouseQuote. Reproduction of the Content may be made only with the written permission from WarehouseQuote.

Sources

• United States Federal Reserve
• United States Census Bureau
• C.H. Robinson North American Freight Market Insights
• S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Cushman & Wakefield
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics