Q1'26 Warehouse Pricing Index Report

Executive Summary

• The National Warehouse Pricing Index remained unchanged in Q4’25 at 112.2.
• US seaborne imports are forecasted to see a 15.1 percent decrease in Q1’26 compared to Q1’25.
• Dry van spot costs are projected to grow roughly 8% year-over-year, driven by supply-side tightening rather than a recovery in freight demand.

The Warehouse Pricing Index (WPI) is available in the Journal of Commerce’s extensive, multi-channel dashboard, Gateway. Learn more about Gateway and how WarehouseQuote helps logistics managers make informed supply chain decisions.

Supply Chain Agility in a Muted Market

As we head into 2026, the U.S. supply chain remains in a "strategic pause." The aggressive front-loading of inventory to beat potential tariffs has faded, and with domestic nearshoring infrastructure still ramping up, import volumes have naturally softened.

As we look toward the new year, the supply chain is undergoing a fundamental shift. While large-scale distribution centers will remain vital for core inventory, the defining characteristic of successful logistics will be flexibility.

Companies are moving away from the "just-in-case" inventory model to an "on-demand" approach by increasingly leveraging flexible warehousing. This on-demand capacity acts as a buffer, allowing shippers to absorb market volatility without the long-term liability associated with fixed leases.

The competitive advantage for logistics and supply chain teams will lie in the speed of access to essential assets. Organizations must be able to activate new operational nodes quickly, changing the timeline from months to weeks. This emphasis on fast, adaptable logistics and operational agility is the key to the successful navigation of these market conditions.

The muted volumes of late 2025 aren’t a signal to stop building; they are a signal to build differently. The winners of 2026 won’t be the companies with the most square feet, but those with the most responsive networks.

U.S. Warehouse Market Watch

• 7.1% National Industrial Vacancy Rate
• 112.2 National Warehouse Pricing Index Reading (Unchanged)

Momentum Has Shifted to the Coasts. For the first time in this dataset, the coastal regions are outpacing the interior. The Northeast (+1.7%) and West (+1.5%) recorded the highest growth rates over the last year. Both regions ended the year on an upswing, with the Northeast reaching its annual high of 106.58 in December.

The South is the Only Region in Decline. The South has completely reversed its previous growth trend. It was the only region to finish the year lower than it started, posting a -0.3% decline over the 12-month period. After peaking in July at 114.9, the South's index has fallen for five consecutive months, ending the year at its lowest point (113.94).

National Index Has Hit a Plateau. The National WPI has effectively flattened. While it posted a modest +0.8% increase overall for the year, all of that growth occurred in the first half. Since June 2025, the national index has stagnated around the 112.2 mark, as the rising prices in the Northeast and West are being offset by the cooling prices in the South and Midwest.

Voice of the Warehouse 

‍One thing that stood out to me last quarter, and throughout much of Q3, was how unpredictable demand became. Even well forecasted brands experienced sudden spikes and pauses, making it harder to rely on traditional planning models. The 2025 selling season felt disconnected from past peaks, with volume in waves rather than a smooth curve, reinforcing the growing need for flexible labor models and adaptable space strategies. - Dawson Hayes, Distribution Alternatives

Back to stage 1: Tariffs continue to drive inventory needs in 2026

By: Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence

2026 won’t bring a respite for supply chain decision-makers looking to optimize their logistics operations in the face of shifting trade policies, with US tariffs set to continue to generate uncertainties which will require careful inventory management.

We’ve previously outlined three stages of dealing with trade policy uncertainty: inventory management to delay the impact of duties; pricing and cost negotiations to share the burden of tariffs; and investment in long-term sourcing position to optimize costs and mitigate risks.

In late 2025 there were clear signs that most firms were firmly out of the inventory management stage and were cutting back their shipments to manage stocking levels downwards – after all, a dollar in the warehouse incurs financial costs.

S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that US seaborne imports fell by 5.1% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a sequential decline every month between August and December marking an atypical seasonal pattern. The volume decline is forecast to accelerate to 15.1% in the first quarter as the original tariff front loading period is lapped, with volumes in 2026 as a whole expected to decline by 8.2%.

The process of passing through higher tariff burdens to customers and suppliers has only occurred slowly, with consumer price inflation for durable products starting to pick up, with apparel prices up by just 0.1% in November versus a year earlier while home furnishings rose by 4.6%. Neither the individual sectors nor aggregate inflation is anywhere near the post-pandemic highs, suggesting firms are taking a conservative approach as tariff uncertainty continues. Firms are only just starting to revisit their long-term sourcing strategies.

There are several areas of uncertainty for US tariffs in 2026. In some cases, this will require importers in specific sectors or who are reliant on certain countries to return to the inventory management toolkit.

The ongoing Supreme Court review of the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for tariffs could rule at any time, with the court generally releasing most of its decisions in mid-June. Even if IEEPA is ruled against, another form of tariffs is likely to be used, probably Section 122, 15% duties temporarily followed by a more permanent fix such as Section 301. There will also be significant administrative and policy issues including refunds — no matter the status of liquidation — and what happens to the existing deals reached with other countries.

Previously agreed deals with other countries – particularly the EU, Japan, South Korea and several ASEAN countries - could still fall apart due to implementation e.g. failure on terms procurement or the details of implementation, for example risks to early deals including detailed terms with Indonesia and the UK with regards to technology rules. Deals could also be reopened as the US seeks to re-utilize its leverage for additional policy goals.

Section 232, national security focused duties have already been applied to steel, aluminum, copper, automotive, heavy truck and forestry products and their derivatives. Tariffs may also be applied to a further nine sectors because of completed or ongoing reviews covering 22.4% of US imports, the most relevant of which for the warehousing sector is electronics where duties could include assembled devices as well as computer chips.

There is the potential for further rollbacks and exemptions ahead of the mid-term elections in November 2026, possibly driven by affordability issues shown in the case of the food sector

Later in the year, a renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement carries the specter of a cancellation of the deal at the worst and a tightening of regional content value limits at best, requiring more sourcing from within the region. 

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Dry Van Cost/Mile Forecast Rises on Supply-Side Tightening, Not Demand Recovery

By: Mat Leo, Principal Manager of Research and Market Intelligence at C.H. Robinson

The dry van truckload cost per mile outlook has moved higher entering 2026, even as freight demand expectations remain muted. Forecasts now point to roughly 8% year-over-year growth in dry van spot costs, a notable upward revision that reflects tightening supply-side conditions rather than a broad-based recovery in freight volumes.

C.H. Robinson Spot Market Dry Van Truckload Forecast

This distinction is critical for shippers interpreting recent market signals. While spot rates have firmed and volatility has increased, the underlying demand environment has not meaningfully improved. Instead, the market is reacting more sharply to disruptions as trucking capacity continues to normalize after a prolonged downturn.

Q1 Strength Driven by Weather and Timing Effects

Dry van spot rates were high to start Q1, but the drivers were largely transitory. Unusually active winter weather disrupted operations across several regions, reducing effective capacity and amplifying rate sensitivity. At the same time, the calendar created a short-term concentration of freight flows tied to seasonal factors due to the holidays rather than sustained demand growth.

January is also expected to mark the first month-over-month (m/m) increase for U.S. imports in six months, though with volumes remaining below last year’s levels, as shippers accelerate shipments ahead of factory shutdowns in Asia for the Lunar New Year on February 15. While this is creating temporary pressure around ports, drayage networks, and inland truckload lanes, overall import volumes are expected to remain down year over year, and the surge is expected to fade by mid-February.

Importantly, this uptick does not signal a change in the broader freight demand outlook. Global ocean demand growth is projected at just 1–2% in 2026, and U.S. container volumes remain well below prior-cycle peaks. Carriers continue to rely on blank sailings and selective service adjustments to manage excess vessel capacity, reinforcing the view that recent import activity is more about timing than momentum. We have also begun to see major ocean carriers express interest in utilizing the Suez Canal for shipping, which if broadly adopted could materially improve capacity and transit reliability later in 2026.

2022-2025 U.S. Container Import Volumes (TEUs)

Supply-Side Dynamics Are Doing the Heavy Lifting

The upward revision to dry van cost per mile forecasts is being driven primarily by capacity attrition and increased market sensitivity to disruption. The for-hire carrier population continues to shrink, and while capacity remains above long-term historical norms, it is no longer abundant enough to absorb shocks smoothly.

For-Hire Carrier Forecast

This was evident during late-2025 weather events and holiday-related slowdowns, when moderate disruptions produced outsized rate reactions. As capacity tightens incrementally, similar events in 2026 are likely to translate into larger and faster cost increases, even without stronger freight demand.

Crucially, most demand-side indicators remain flat to modestly positive at best. Contract pricing has largely held, route guide performance has weakened only marginally, and the majority of freight continues to move as planned. These conditions suggest the market is closer to a transition than it was a year ago, but not yet in a confirmed upcycle.

What This Means for the 2026 Market Outlook

Looking ahead to 2026, dry van transportation costs are likely to rise further, but the path will be uneven. The first half of the year should still see seasonal softness following the post-holiday slowdown, with spot rates expected to trough before gradually firming later in the year. The second half of 2026 carries more upside risk, as a smaller carrier base increases the market’s vulnerability to weather, regulatory events, and operational disruptions.

For shippers, this environment underscores the importance of distinguishing between noise and signal. Early-year rate increases tied to weather and Lunar New Year timing do not represent a demand-driven market shift. However, continued supply-side tightening means the market will react more aggressively to any shocks that do occur.

In practical terms, 2026 is shaping up as a year where cost volatility increases before demand meaningfully recovers. Shippers with balanced carrier strategies and disciplined exposure to the spot market are likely to be better positioned than those relying heavily on transactional capacity. Planning for resilience, rather than assuming a return to sustained softness, will be key as the truckload market continues its gradual transition. For specifics on modes or services projections in the upcoming year, read C.H. Robinson’s 2026 Freight Market Outlook.

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Explanation of Terms

Industrial Real Estate Vacancy Rates

Industrial real estate vacancy rate is the percentage of available industrial property, such as a warehouse or distribution center.

United States Regional Divisions

Midwest‍

• East North Central: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin
• West North Central: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Northeast

• New England: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont
• Middle Atlantic: New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania

South ‍

• South Atlantic: Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington DC, and West Virginia
• East South Central: Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee
• West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas

WarehouseQuote’s Economic Commentary Disclaimer

The material and content used in this publication is for informational purposes only. Reference to any third party (including external hyperlinks) does not constitute or imply the endorsement of said third party. WarehouseQuote does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the Content. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of WarehouseQuote. Reproduction of the Content may be made only with the written permission from WarehouseQuote.

Sources

• United States Federal Reserve
• United States Census Bureau
• C.H. Robinson North American Freight Market Insights
• S&P Global Market Intelligence
• Cushman & Wakefield
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics